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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Reading run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Plymouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reading beat Plymouth 1-4 at Home Park, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.87 xG and Reading 1.44 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Reading outscored their 1.44 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.68 / defence 1.20 against Reading attack 1.04 / defence 0.99, drawn from 21/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 23% | Draw 27% | Reading 50%, with Reading to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 56%, Reading 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Reading's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Reading arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reading (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights