Plymouth vs Peterborough – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Peterborough travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Home Park this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Home Park this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Plymouth, 2 for Peterborough and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Plymouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Plymouth trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Peterborough trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 51% versus Peterborough 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 56% | Peterborough 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.51 xG and Peterborough 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.892 / defence 0.902 | Peterborough attack 0.802 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.262. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Plymouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Plymouth games / 59 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 49% | Draw 29% | Peterborough 21%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Peterborough 4.76. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Plymouth 50% | Peterborough 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 49% | Draw 29% | Peterborough 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Plymouth 1.51 / Peterborough 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.892 / def 0.902 | Peterborough attack 0.802 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Peterborough xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Peterborough kick off?
Plymouth vs Peterborough is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Home Park.
Where is Plymouth vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Peterborough part of?
Plymouth vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 49% chance of winning, Peterborough a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Plymouth and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Peterborough?
Record (4 meetings): Plymouth 2W | Draws 0 | Peterborough 2W.
What form are Plymouth and Peterborough in?
Plymouth (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Peterborough (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 0.89x the league average against Peterborough's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
49%
2.02
29%
3.40
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.42
0.91
Peterborough xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
5%
21.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.91 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plymouth's recent record stands at 29W 9D 21L from 59 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Peterborough, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 30L across 59 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plymouth by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Peterborough heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 13W 5D 11L from 29 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Peterborough's away record stands at 8W 4D 17L across 29 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plymouth are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.27 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 59 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 29W 9D 21L in their last 59 games (1.63 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 17W 12D 30L in their last 59 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Peterborough away?
Plymouth's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.52 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plymouth and Peterborough runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when Peterborough won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Plymouth
0
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Peterborough?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 2, Peterborough have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Peterborough 0-1 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 52%, Peterborough 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Plymouth) and 52% (Peterborough).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Peterborough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Plymouth's games and 59% of Peterborough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Plymouth's recent games and 52% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Peterborough tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.