Plymouth vs Peterborough – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Peterborough travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Home Park this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Peterborough have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Peterborough's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Plymouth, 2 for Peterborough and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Plymouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Plymouth trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Peterborough trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 54% versus Peterborough 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 56% | Peterborough 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 2.09 xG and Peterborough 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.088 / defence 1.035 | Peterborough attack 0.735 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.314. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Plymouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Plymouth games / 50 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 61% | Draw 23% | Peterborough 16%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Peterborough 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 80% | Peterborough 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 61% | Draw 23% | Peterborough 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Plymouth 2.09 / Peterborough 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.088 / def 1.035 | Peterborough attack 0.735 / def 1.332 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Peterborough xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Peterborough kick off?
Plymouth vs Peterborough is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Home Park.
Where is Plymouth vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Peterborough part of?
Plymouth vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 61% chance of winning, Peterborough a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Plymouth and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Peterborough?
Record (4 meetings): Plymouth 2W | Draws 0 | Peterborough 2W.
What form are Plymouth and Peterborough in?
Plymouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Peterborough (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 1.09x the league average against Peterborough's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
61%
1.63
23%
4.38
16%
6.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.09
1.00
Peterborough xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
6.27
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
2%
50.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.00 for Peterborough, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Peterborough?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plymouth's recent record stands at 23W 8D 19L from 50 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Peterborough, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 25L across 50 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Peterborough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plymouth by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Peterborough heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 11W 4D 10L from 25 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Peterborough's away record stands at 7W 2D 16L across 25 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plymouth are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.32 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Early Season
Peterborough
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 23W 8D 19L in their last 50 games (1.54 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 16W 9D 25L in their last 50 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Peterborough away?
Plymouth's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.48 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plymouth and Peterborough runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when Peterborough won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Plymouth
0
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Peterborough?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 2, Peterborough have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Peterborough 0-1 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 60%, Peterborough 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Plymouth) and 56% (Peterborough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Peterborough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Plymouth's games and 56% of Peterborough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Plymouth's matches and 56% of Peterborough's.
Do Plymouth and Peterborough tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.