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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Peterborough defy the odds to beat Plymouth 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough beat Plymouth 0-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 9, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.77 xG and Peterborough 1.22 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.94 / defence 1.21 against Peterborough attack 0.96 / defence 1.29, drawn from 8/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 50% | Draw 23% | Peterborough 26%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 61%, Peterborough 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Peterborough's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.02 PPG, Peterborough 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Peterborough (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights