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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lincoln run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Plymouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lincoln beat Plymouth 1-4 at Home Park, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.95 xG and Lincoln 1.43 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Lincoln outscored their 1.43 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.79 / defence 1.16 against Lincoln attack 1.11 / defence 0.90, drawn from 29/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 25% | Draw 27% | Lincoln 48%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 55%, Lincoln 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Lincoln's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lincoln arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights