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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Cardiff.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Cardiff 5-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.95 xG and Cardiff 1.76 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.77 / defence 1.33 against Cardiff attack 1.18 / defence 0.89, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 20% | Draw 23% | Cardiff 56%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Plymouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 56%, Cardiff 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Cardiff's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.14 PPG, Cardiff 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights