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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Plymouth 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Plymouth 0-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.88 xG and Bradford 1.45 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.72 / defence 1.36 against Bradford attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 23% | Draw 27% | Bradford 50%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 59%, Bradford 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bradford's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Bradford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights