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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Plymouth 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Plymouth 1-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.34 xG and Bolton 1.42 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.07 / defence 1.21 against Bolton attack 1.05 / defence 0.88, drawn from 39/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 35% | Draw 25% | Bolton 39%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 58%, Bolton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (85 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Bolton's trading profile (85 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.24 PPG, Bolton 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights