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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AFC Wimbledon edge out Plymouth 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AFC Wimbledon beat Plymouth 1-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 13, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.20 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.32 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.81 / defence 1.15 against AFC Wimbledon attack 1.03 / defence 1.10, drawn from 11/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 34% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 40%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 60%, AFC Wimbledon 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AFC Wimbledon arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights