Plymouth 1-2 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon meet at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 October 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plymouth have posted 5W 1D 4L at Home Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
AFC Wimbledon arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Plymouth, 0 for AFC Wimbledon and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with Plymouth winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Plymouth — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 54% versus AFC Wimbledon 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 60% | AFC Wimbledon 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.20 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.810 / defence 1.151 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.033 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.110. Data: 11 Plymouth games / 12 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 34% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 40%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | AFC Wimbledon 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Wimbledon are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 70% | AFC Wimbledon 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 34% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Plymouth 1.20 / AFC Wimbledon 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.810 / def 1.151 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.033 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.32
AFC Wimbledon xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Plymouth 1 - 2 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 34% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (2 meetings): Plymouth 2W | Draws 0 | AFC Wimbledon 0W.
What form are Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon in?
Plymouth (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plymouth's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (1.03x) against Plymouth's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 11/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
34%
2.97
27%
3.72
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.51
1.32
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
9%
11.11
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.32 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Plymouth's recent record stands at 15W 14D 28L from 57 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Wimbledon, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 16L across 57 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AFC Wimbledon by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Plymouth heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 11W 7D 10L from 28 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AFC Wimbledon's away record stands at 10W 8D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plymouth are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.23 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 15W 14D 28L in their last 57 games (1.04 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 27W 14D 16L in their last 57 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Plymouth's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.43 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Plymouth or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Plymouth
0
Draws
1
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 3, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 1-3 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 71%, AFC Wimbledon 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Plymouth) and 36% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon in 32%; AFC Wimbledon in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play AFC Wimbledon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Plymouth's games and 43% of AFC Wimbledon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Plymouth's recent games and 36% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AFC Wimbledon edge out Plymouth 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Plymouth 1-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 13, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.20 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.32 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.81 / defence 1.15 against AFC Wimbledon attack 1.03 / defence 1.10, drawn from 11/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 34% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 40%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 60%, AFC Wimbledon 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AFC Wimbledon arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.