🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon meet at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 October 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Plymouth have posted 5W 1D 4L at Home Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

AFC Wimbledon (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

AFC Wimbledon's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

AFC Wimbledon arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Plymouth, 0 for AFC Wimbledon and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with Plymouth winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Plymouth — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 54% versus AFC Wimbledon 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 60% | AFC Wimbledon 35%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.20 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.810 / defence 1.151 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.033 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.110. Data: 11 Plymouth games / 12 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Plymouth 34% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 40%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | AFC Wimbledon 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, AFC Wimbledon are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 70% | AFC Wimbledon 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights