Plymouth 4-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 39 sees Accrington ST travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plymouth — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Plymouth's home record at Home Park: 6W 0D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Home Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Home Park this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League One this season, Accrington ST have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Plymouth are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Plymouth's 30% rate and Accrington ST's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Plymouth, 0 for Accrington ST and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2021, ended 4–1 with Plymouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 51% versus Accrington ST 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 49% | Accrington ST 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.52 xG and Accrington ST 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.941 / defence 0.869 | Accrington ST attack 0.535 / defence 1.424. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.212. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.424 — this is suppressing Plymouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Plymouth games / 37 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 60% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 13%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.67 | Draw 3.70 | Accrington ST 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (60%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Accrington ST's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 30% | Accrington ST 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 60% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 34% | xG Plymouth 1.52 / Accrington ST 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.941 / def 0.869 | Accrington ST attack 0.535 / def 1.424 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Accrington ST xG
34%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Accrington ST kick off?
Plymouth vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Accrington ST?
Plymouth 4 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Plymouth vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Accrington ST part of?
Plymouth vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 60% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 13% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Plymouth and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Accrington ST?
Record (1 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Accrington ST in?
Plymouth (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Accrington ST (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (0.94) and Accrington ST's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 0.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.4%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
60%
1.66
27%
3.71
13%
7.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.08
0.56
Accrington ST xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
7.70
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
3%
35.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 10.7 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.56 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth come into this having played 37 games, going 20W 8D 9L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.35 PPG from 37 outings (14W 8D 15L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Plymouth's home form reads 11W 3D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 0.72 points per game from 18 outings (3W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Accrington ST's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.27 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 20W 8D 9L in their last 37 games (1.84 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 14W 8D 15L in their last 37 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Accrington ST away?
Plymouth's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.00 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Plymouth have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Plymouth won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Plymouth
0
Draws
0
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Accrington ST?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 4, Accrington ST have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2023, when Accrington ST 0-2 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Accrington ST?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Accrington ST see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 44%, Accrington ST 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Plymouth) and 44% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Accrington ST in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Plymouth's recent matches and 39% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Plymouth's recent games and 44% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Accrington ST 4-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.52 xG and Accrington ST 0.56 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.94 / defence 0.87 against Accrington ST attack 0.54 / defence 1.42, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 60% | Draw 27% | Accrington ST 13%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 49%, Accrington ST 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Accrington ST's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.