Charlton 2-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charlton host Burton Albion at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 39. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Charlton — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charlton at 1.00 PPG versus Burton Albion's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Charlton, 0 for Burton Albion and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Charlton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Burton Albion trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 51% versus Burton Albion 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 49% | Burton Albion 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.51 xG and Burton Albion 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.843 / defence 1.102 | Burton Albion attack 0.827 / defence 1.582. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.212. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.582 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Charlton games / 38 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 46% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 27%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Burton Albion 3.70. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 10% | Burton Albion 90%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 46% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Charlton 1.51 / Burton Albion 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.843 / def 1.102 | Burton Albion attack 0.827 / def 1.582 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Charlton (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Burton Albion xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Burton Albion kick off?
Charlton vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Charlton 2 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Charlton vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Burton Albion part of?
Charlton vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 46% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Charlton and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Burton Albion?
Record (1 meetings): Charlton 1W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 0W.
What form are Charlton and Burton Albion in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.84x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.58x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.69
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.61
1.10
Burton Albion xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
6%
16.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Charlton and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Charlton and 1.10 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charlton come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 7D 18L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.19 PPG from 37 outings (12W 8D 17L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.16 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Charlton's home form reads 8W 3D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.72 points per game from 18 outings (3W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Burton Albion's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.27 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burton Albion in 62%.
Last 37 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 12W 7D 18L in their last 37 games (1.16 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 12W 8D 17L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Burton Albion away?
Charlton's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.50 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Burton Albion runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Charlton's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Charlton
2
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Burton Albion?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 5, Burton Albion have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Charlton 3-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Burton Albion?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 33%, Burton Albion 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Charlton) and 56% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Charlton have failed to score in 28% of games; Burton Albion in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Charlton's recent matches and 61% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Charlton's recent games and 56% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Burton Albion 2-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.51 xG and Burton Albion 1.10 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Burton Albion landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.84 / defence 1.10 against Burton Albion attack 0.83 / defence 1.58, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 46% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 27%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 49%, Burton Albion 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Burton Albion's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.16 PPG, Burton Albion 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.