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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Peterborough defy the odds to beat Wigan 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough beat Wigan 1-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.17 xG and Wigan 1.58 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wigan landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.15 / defence 1.35 against Wigan attack 1.00 / defence 0.80, drawn from 73/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 28% | Draw 25% | Wigan 47%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 68%, Wigan 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Wigan's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.43 PPG, Wigan 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights