Peterborough 1-0 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Wigan (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Peterborough face Wigan.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 29 as Peterborough welcome Wigan to Weston Homes Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Peterborough have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Weston Homes Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Wigan — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Wigan have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Wigan's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Peterborough's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Wigan have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Peterborough.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2024, ended 0–3 with Wigan winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Wigan have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Peterborough in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Wigan in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 65% versus Wigan 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 68% | Wigan 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.17 xG and Wigan 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.148 / defence 1.355 | Wigan attack 0.999 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.169. Wigan's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 73 Peterborough games / 72 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 28% | Draw 25% | Wigan 47%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Wigan 2.13. Wigan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Peterborough 70% | Wigan 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 28% | Draw 25% | Wigan 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Peterborough 1.17 / Wigan 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.148 / def 1.355 | Wigan attack 0.999 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Wigan (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Wigan xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Wigan kick off?
Peterborough vs Wigan kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 January 2025 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Wigan?
Peterborough 1 - 0 Wigan.
Where is Peterborough vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Wigan part of?
Peterborough vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 28% chance of winning, Wigan a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Peterborough and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Wigan?
Record (3 meetings): Peterborough 0W | Draws 0 | Wigan 3W.
What form are Peterborough and Wigan in?
Peterborough (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Wigan (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.15) and Wigan's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
28%
3.57
25%
3.97
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.75
1.58
Wigan xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
6%
17.39
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.58 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 29W 16D 27L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wigan's form line: 29W 16D 27L from 72 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 1.43 PPG, Wigan on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.67 PPG from 36 outings (17W 9D 10L).
On the road, Wigan have gone 12W 9D 15L from 36 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Peterborough are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.24 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Wigan in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Wigan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Wigan in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 29W 16D 27L in their last 72 games (1.43 PPG), while Wigan have gone 29W 16D 27L in their last 72 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Wigan away?
Peterborough's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.67 PPG; Wigan away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Wigan in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Feb 2026, when Peterborough won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Peterborough's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Peterborough
0
Draws
4
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Wigan?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Wigan have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Peterborough 6-1 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Wigan?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 64%, Wigan 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Peterborough and 50% for Wigan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Wigan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Peterborough's games and 58% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Peterborough's matches and 50% of Wigan's.
Do Peterborough and Wigan tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Wigan in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Peterborough defy the odds to beat Wigan 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Wigan 1-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.17 xG and Wigan 1.58 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wigan landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.15 / defence 1.35 against Wigan attack 1.00 / defence 0.80, drawn from 73/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 28% | Draw 25% | Wigan 47%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 68%, Wigan 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Wigan's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.43 PPG, Wigan 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.