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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Peterborough and Stockport County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough and Stockport County finished level at 1-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.16 xG and Stockport County 1.33 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.12 / defence 1.28 against Stockport County attack 0.93 / defence 0.81, drawn from 87/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 32% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 41%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 66%, Stockport County 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Stockport County's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights