Peterborough 1-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Weston Homes Stadium plays host to Peterborough versus Stockport County in League One, Regular Season - 43. Kick-off: Friday 18 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Peterborough's overall League One record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Weston Homes Stadium this season.
Stockport County have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Stockport County have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Peterborough, 1 for Stockport County and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with Stockport County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (88 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Stockport County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (88 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 64% versus Stockport County 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 66% | Stockport County 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.16 xG and Stockport County 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.124 / defence 1.282 | Stockport County attack 0.926 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.124. Data: 87 Peterborough games / 42 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 32% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 41%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Stockport County 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Peterborough 50% | Stockport County 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 32% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Peterborough 1.16 / Stockport County 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.124 / def 1.282 | Stockport County attack 0.926 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Stockport County xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Stockport County kick off?
Peterborough vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 18 April 2025 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Stockport County?
Peterborough 1 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Peterborough vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Stockport County part of?
Peterborough vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 32% chance of winning, Stockport County a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Peterborough and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Stockport County?
Record (1 meetings): Peterborough 0W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 1W.
What form are Peterborough and Stockport County in?
Peterborough (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Stockport County (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Peterborough's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (0.93x) against Peterborough's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 87/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
32%
3.11
27%
3.66
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.49
1.33
Stockport County xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
8%
11.81
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.33 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 88 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 37W 19D 32L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Stockport County's form line: 49W 22D 17L from 88 games, 1.92 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Stockport County are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Peterborough.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.61 PPG from 44 outings (20W 11D 13L).
On the road, Stockport County have gone 20W 13D 11L from 44 away games — 1.66 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Peterborough are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.81 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Stockport County in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 88 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 37W 19D 32L in their last 88 games (1.48 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 49W 22D 17L in their last 88 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.61 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Stockport County in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 3-0 on 20 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stockport County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Peterborough
1
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Stockport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 1, Stockport County have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Stockport County 3-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 64%, Stockport County 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Peterborough and 52% for Stockport County. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Stockport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Peterborough's games and 64% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Peterborough's matches and 52% of Stockport County's.
Do Peterborough and Stockport County tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough and Stockport County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough and Stockport County finished level at 1-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.16 xG and Stockport County 1.33 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.12 / defence 1.28 against Stockport County attack 0.93 / defence 0.81, drawn from 87/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 32% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 41%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 66%, Stockport County 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Stockport County's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.