Peterborough 2-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 43%, yet in-form Stevenage provide a compelling counter-argument — this Peterborough vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Peterborough and Stevenage meet at Weston Homes Stadium in League One (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Peterborough have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Peterborough have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stevenage's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Stevenage's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Stevenage arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Peterborough edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Mar 2024, ended Peterborough 3–1 Stevenage — a Peterborough win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 64% versus Stevenage 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 67% | Stevenage 44%). Note also that Stevenage surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Peterborough recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.34 xG and Stevenage 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.111 / defence 1.202 | Stevenage attack 0.680 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.272. Stevenage's attack rating of 0.680 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Peterborough's defence rating of 1.202 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stevenage's projected output up. Data: built from Peterborough's last 55 games and Stevenage's last 55.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 43% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 29%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.32 | Draw 3.52 | Stevenage 3.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Peterborough as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stevenage (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Peterborough 60% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, matchday 10 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 43% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Peterborough 1.34 / Stevenage 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.111 / def 1.202 | Stevenage attack 0.680 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Stevenage xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Peterborough vs Stevenage FAQs
What time does Peterborough vs Stevenage kick off?
Peterborough vs Stevenage kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Peterborough 2 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Peterborough vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Stevenage part of?
Peterborough vs Stevenage is a League One fixture (matchday 10) (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 43% chance of winning, Stevenage a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Peterborough and Stevenage will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Peterborough vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Peterborough's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.68x) against Peterborough's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Peterborough's last 55 games and Stevenage's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
43%
2.32
28%
3.52
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.38
1.04
Stevenage xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
7%
13.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Peterborough vs Stevenage Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.04 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Peterborough come into this having played 55 games, going 26W 12D 17L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.55 PPG from 55 outings (23W 16D 16L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Peterborough against 1.55 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Peterborough's home form reads 13W 7D 7L across their last 27 home games, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 27 away games (9W 8D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.16 scored and 0.93 conceded. Peterborough's scoring rate against Stevenage's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Stevenage in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
Peterborough (Home) vs Stevenage (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Peterborough
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Peterborough vs Stevenage Form FAQs
What form are Peterborough and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 26W 12D 17L in their last 55 games (1.64 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 23W 16D 16L in their last 55 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Stevenage away?
Peterborough's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.70 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Stevenage in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 1 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Peterborough
3
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Peterborough vs Stevenage H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Stevenage?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Peterborough have won 2, Stevenage have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Stevenage last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2026: Peterborough 0-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 63%, Stevenage 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Peterborough and 52% for Stevenage. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 37%; Stevenage in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Peterborough vs Stevenage Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Peterborough and Stevenage matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Peterborough's recent matches and 44% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Peterborough and Stevenage matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Peterborough's matches and 52% of Stevenage's.
Do Peterborough and Stevenage matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Peterborough's recent matches and 74% of Stevenage's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Peterborough edge out Stevenage 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Stevenage 2-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.34 xG and Stevenage 1.04 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.11 / defence 1.20 against Stevenage attack 0.68 / defence 0.95, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 43% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 29%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 67%, Stevenage 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.64 PPG, Stevenage 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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