Charlton 1-0 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 37%, yet in-form Birmingham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charlton vs Birmingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Birmingham travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 4W 5D 1L at The Valley — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Birmingham — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Birmingham have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Birmingham are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Charlton register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Birmingham in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Birmingham trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charlton 68% and Birmingham 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 48% | Birmingham 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.29 xG and Birmingham 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.983 / defence 0.870 | Birmingham attack 1.164 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.256. Data: 55 Charlton games / 8 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 37% | Draw 28% | Birmingham 36%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Birmingham 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Birmingham (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 60% | Birmingham 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Birmingham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 37% | Draw 28% | Birmingham 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Charlton 1.29 / Birmingham 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.983 / def 0.870 | Birmingham attack 1.164 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Charlton (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Birmingham xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Birmingham kick off?
Charlton vs Birmingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Birmingham?
Charlton 1 - 0 Birmingham.
Where is Charlton vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Birmingham part of?
Charlton vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 37% chance of winning, Birmingham a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Charlton and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Birmingham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Birmingham in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Birmingham (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.98x the league average against Birmingham's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Birmingham's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
37%
2.73
28%
3.62
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.56
1.27
Birmingham xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
10%
10.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Charlton and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Charlton and 1.27 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charlton come into this having played 54 games, going 14W 21D 19L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Birmingham sit at 1.33 PPG from 54 outings (20W 12D 22L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.17 PPG, Birmingham on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Charlton's home form reads 9W 9D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Birmingham have taken 0.88 points per game from 26 outings (6W 5D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Birmingham's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.24 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 14W 21D 19L in their last 54 games (1.17 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 20W 12D 22L in their last 54 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Birmingham away?
Charlton's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.38 PPG; Birmingham away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Charlton's record when hosting Birmingham specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Charlton
1
Draws
1
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Birmingham?
From 4 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Birmingham have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Charlton 1-0 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Birmingham?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 73%, Birmingham 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Charlton) and 46% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Birmingham in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Birmingham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Charlton's games and 54% of Birmingham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Charlton's recent games and 46% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Birmingham tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Birmingham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Birmingham 1-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.29 xG and Birmingham 1.27 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Birmingham landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.98 / defence 0.87 against Birmingham attack 1.16 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 37% | Draw 28% | Birmingham 36%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 48%, Birmingham 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Birmingham's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.17 PPG, Birmingham 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.