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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Port Vale cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Peterborough.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port Vale beat Peterborough 1-3 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 2.55 xG and Port Vale 0.79 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Port Vale outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.38 / defence 1.04 against Port Vale attack 0.69 / defence 1.32, drawn from 87/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 75% | Draw 15% | Port Vale 9%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a Port Vale win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Port Vale 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (86 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Port Vale's trading profile (86 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.19 PPG, Port Vale 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.02 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights