Peterborough 5-2 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Plymouth at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Plymouth travel to Weston Homes Stadium to take on Peterborough. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 February 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Peterborough have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Weston Homes Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Plymouth — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in League One this season, Plymouth have posted 3W 6D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Plymouth's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Peterborough's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Peterborough, 1 for Plymouth and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Plymouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Peterborough in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Plymouth in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 45% versus Plymouth 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Plymouth 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.05 xG and Plymouth 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 0.995 / defence 1.337 | Plymouth attack 1.138 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.134. Data: 30 Peterborough games / 78 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 23% | Draw 24% | Plymouth 53%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Plymouth 1.89. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 50% | Plymouth 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 23% | Draw 24% | Plymouth 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Peterborough 1.05 / Plymouth 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 0.995 / def 1.337 | Plymouth attack 1.138 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Plymouth xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Plymouth kick off?
Peterborough vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Plymouth?
Peterborough 5 - 2 Plymouth.
Where is Peterborough vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Plymouth part of?
Peterborough vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 23% chance of winning, Plymouth a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Peterborough and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Plymouth?
Record (1 meetings): Peterborough 0W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 1W.
What form are Peterborough and Plymouth in?
Peterborough (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Plymouth (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 0.99x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
23%
4.36
24%
4.20
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.77
1.73
Plymouth xG
4.36
23%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
4%
24.48
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.73 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 24W 12D 40L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Plymouth's form line: 42W 19D 15L from 76 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Peterborough.
Venue Form
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.43 PPG from 37 outings (15W 8D 14L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 14W 14D 9L from 37 away games — 1.51 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Peterborough are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.63 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 24W 12D 40L in their last 76 games (1.11 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 42W 19D 15L in their last 76 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Plymouth away?
Plymouth's away record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.43 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Plymouth in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when Peterborough won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Peterborough's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Peterborough
0
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Plymouth have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Peterborough 0-1 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Peterborough see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 43%, Plymouth 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Peterborough) and 49% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Peterborough's recent matches and 60% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Peterborough's recent games and 49% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Plymouth tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Plymouth 5-2 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.05 xG and Plymouth 1.73 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 0.99 / defence 1.34 against Plymouth attack 1.14 / defence 0.84, drawn from 30/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 23% | Draw 24% | Plymouth 53%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Peterborough win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Plymouth 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Peterborough winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.