Peterborough vs Plymouth Prediction & Preview

Poisson rates Plymouth at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Plymouth encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Plymouth travel to Weston Homes Stadium to take on Peterborough in League One (matchday 36). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Peterborough have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Peterborough's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Plymouth — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Plymouth have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Plymouth's 1.90 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Peterborough's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Peterborough's games and 70% of Plymouth's (from Peterborough's last 10 home games and Plymouth's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Peterborough have won 2, Plymouth 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Jan 2026, ended Peterborough 0–1 Plymouth — a Plymouth win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Peterborough in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Plymouth in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 58% versus Plymouth 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 54% | Plymouth 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.22 xG and Plymouth 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 0.778 / defence 1.143 | Plymouth attack 1.253 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.239. Peterborough's attack rating of 0.778 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Plymouth have an above-average attack rating of 1.253, which lifts their away xG to 1.77. Data: built from Peterborough's last 59 games and Plymouth's last 60.

Result probabilities: Peterborough 24% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 48%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 4.12 | Draw 3.66 | Plymouth 2.07. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.22 / 1.77) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Peterborough's last 10 home games and Plymouth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Peterborough 60% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 70% (last 10 away games).

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