Peterborough vs Oxford United – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Oxford United at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Oxford United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Peterborough and Oxford United meet at Weston Homes Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Peterborough have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough's home record at Weston Homes Stadium: 1W 4D 5L from 10 League One appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Oxford United (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Oxford United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oxford United's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Oxford United arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Peterborough have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Oxford United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Peterborough lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Peterborough — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Oxford United — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 57% versus Oxford United 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 53% | Oxford United 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.04 xG and Oxford United 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 0.757 / defence 1.125 | Oxford United attack 1.067 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.262. Peterborough's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Peterborough games / 12 Oxford United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 24% | Draw 29% | Oxford United 47%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Oxford United 2.13. Oxford United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oxford United are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oxford United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 60% | Oxford United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Oxford United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 24% | Draw 29% | Oxford United 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Peterborough 1.04 / Oxford United 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 0.757 / def 1.125 | Oxford United attack 1.067 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Oxford United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Oxford United xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Oxford United kick off?
Peterborough vs Oxford United is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 November 2026 at Weston Homes Stadium.
Where is Peterborough vs Oxford United being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Oxford United part of?
Peterborough vs Oxford United is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Oxford United?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 24% chance of winning, Oxford United a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Oxford United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Oxford United?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Peterborough and Oxford United will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Oxford United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Oxford United?
Record (6 meetings): Peterborough 2W | Draws 2 | Oxford United 2W.
What form are Peterborough and Oxford United in?
Peterborough (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Oxford United (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Peterborough's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Oxford United's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Oxford United's attack (1.07x) against Peterborough's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 59/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oxford United Win
24%
4.12
29%
3.43
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.55
1.51
Oxford United xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
5%
18.75
16%
6.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Oxford United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Oxford United expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.51 for Oxford United, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Oxford United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Peterborough's recent record stands at 17W 12D 29L from 58 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oxford United, meanwhile, have gone 17W 19D 22L across 58 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Oxford United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Peterborough against 1.21 for Oxford United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 9W 8D 12L from 29 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oxford United's away record stands at 7W 8D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Peterborough are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Oxford United are on 1.12 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 58 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Oxford United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Oxford United in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 17W 12D 29L in their last 58 games (1.09 PPG), while Oxford United have gone 17W 19D 22L in their last 58 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Oxford United away?
Peterborough's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.21 PPG; Oxford United away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oxford United won 5-0 on 13 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Oxford United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Peterborough
2
Draws
2
Oxford United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Oxford United?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Oxford United have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Oxford United last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2024, when Peterborough 1-1 Oxford United.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Oxford United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 55%, Oxford United 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Peterborough) and 52% (Oxford United).
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 31% of games; Oxford United in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Oxford United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Oxford United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Peterborough's games and 62% of Oxford United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs Oxford United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Peterborough's recent games and 52% of Oxford United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Oxford United tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Oxford United in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.