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Dominant Northampton run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Peterborough.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Northampton beat Peterborough 0-4 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.68 xG and Northampton 1.05 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Northampton outscored their 1.05 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.24 / defence 1.06 against Northampton attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 85/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 52% | Draw 25% | Northampton 23%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Northampton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 65%, Northampton 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Northampton's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.51 PPG, Northampton 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights