Peterborough vs Cambridge United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cambridge United make the trip to Weston Homes Stadium to face Peterborough in League One, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Peterborough's overall League One record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Peterborough have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Peterborough at Weston Homes Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Cambridge United have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cambridge United have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambridge United's away record: 3W 6D 1L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cambridge United are 1.00 PPG clear of Peterborough in recent League One fixtures (1.60 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Peterborough are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Peterborough winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Peterborough and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 56% versus Cambridge United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 56% | Cambridge United 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.50 xG and Cambridge United 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 0.988 / defence 0.883 | Cambridge United attack 0.900 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.314. Data: 50 Peterborough games / 4 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 46% | Draw 29% | Cambridge United 25%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Cambridge United 4.00. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Peterborough dominate the H2H record, yet Cambridge United are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cambridge United (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 70% | Cambridge United 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 46% | Draw 29% | Cambridge United 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Peterborough 1.50 / Cambridge United 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 0.988 / def 0.883 | Cambridge United attack 0.900 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Cambridge United xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Cambridge United kick off?
Peterborough vs Cambridge United is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Weston Homes Stadium.
Where is Peterborough vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Cambridge United part of?
Peterborough vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 46% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Peterborough and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Cambridge United?
Record (6 meetings): Peterborough 5W | Draws 0 | Cambridge United 1W.
What form are Peterborough and Cambridge United in?
Peterborough (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Cambridge United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (0.99) and Cambridge United's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (0.90x) against Peterborough's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 50/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.44
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.55
1.04
Cambridge United xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
5%
18.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.04 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Peterborough's recent record stands at 16W 9D 25L from 50 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Peterborough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cambridge United, meanwhile, have gone 24W 17D 9L across 50 games — 1.78 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cambridge United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambridge United by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Peterborough heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 9W 7D 9L from 25 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambridge United's away record stands at 8W 11D 6L across 25 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Peterborough are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.46 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Cambridge United in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Early Season
Cambridge United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 16W 9D 25L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 24W 17D 9L in their last 50 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Cambridge United away?
Cambridge United's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.36 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Peterborough have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 5-0 on 11 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Peterborough
0
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Cambridge United?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 5, Cambridge United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Cambridge United 0-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Cambridge United?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Cambridge United see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 56%, Cambridge United 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Peterborough) and 28% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United in 40%; Peterborough have failed to score in 28% of games; Cambridge United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Peterborough's recent matches and 44% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Peterborough's recent games and 28% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.