Peterborough 1-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Peterborough and Burton Albion meet at Weston Homes Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Peterborough (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Weston Homes Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Weston Homes Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Burton Albion have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Peterborough. A 0.80 PPG lead over Burton Albion (1.50 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Peterborough — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 42% versus Burton Albion 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 61% | Burton Albion 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 2.30 xG and Burton Albion 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.210 / defence 0.736 | Burton Albion attack 1.149 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.216. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Peterborough's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Peterborough's defence rating of 0.736 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 11 Peterborough games / 58 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 66% | Draw 19% | Burton Albion 16%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Burton Albion 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Peterborough 20% | Burton Albion 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 66% | Draw 19% | Burton Albion 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 58% | xG Peterborough 2.30 / Burton Albion 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.210 / def 0.736 | Burton Albion attack 1.149 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Burton Albion xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Burton Albion kick off?
Peterborough vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Peterborough 1 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Peterborough vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Burton Albion part of?
Peterborough vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 66% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Peterborough and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Burton Albion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Peterborough and Burton Albion in?
Peterborough (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.21) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (1.15x) against Peterborough's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 11/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
66%
1.52
19%
5.37
16%
6.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.33
1.03
Burton Albion xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
6.44
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
10%
9.96
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
2%
64.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.03 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Peterborough have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 15W 10D 32L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion's form line: 15W 12D 30L from 57 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Peterborough against 1.00 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.32 PPG from 28 outings (10W 7D 11L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 4W 6D 18L from 28 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.12 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 57 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 15W 10D 32L in their last 57 games (0.96 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 15W 12D 30L in their last 57 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Burton Albion away?
Peterborough's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.32 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 4-0 on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Peterborough
3
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Burton Albion?
From 8 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 4, Burton Albion have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Peterborough 1-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Burton Albion?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 39%, Burton Albion 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Peterborough) and 57% (Burton Albion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Peterborough have failed to score in 39% of games; Burton Albion in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Peterborough's recent matches and 54% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Peterborough's matches and 57% of Burton Albion's.
Do Peterborough and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough and Burton Albion finished level at 1-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 2.30 xG and Burton Albion 1.03 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.21 / defence 0.74 against Burton Albion attack 1.15 / defence 1.42, drawn from 11/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 66% | Draw 19% | Burton Albion 16%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 61%, Burton Albion 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 0.96 PPG, Burton Albion 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.