Lincoln 0-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lincoln and Charlton meet at LNER Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lincoln have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lincoln have posted 4W 4D 2L at LNER Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Charlton have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Lincoln, 1.10 for Charlton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lincoln have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Charlton in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Lincoln 2W, Charlton 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Lincoln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lincoln — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Charlton — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 59% versus Charlton 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 50% | Charlton 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.65 xG and Charlton 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 1.047 / defence 0.975 | Charlton attack 0.927 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.216. Data: 56 Lincoln games / 57 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 50% | Draw 24% | Charlton 25%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Charlton 4.00. Lincoln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lincoln if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 60% | Charlton 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 50% | Draw 24% | Charlton 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Lincoln 1.65 / Charlton 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 1.047 / def 0.975 | Charlton attack 0.927 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Charlton xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Charlton kick off?
Lincoln vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Charlton?
Lincoln 0 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Lincoln vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Charlton part of?
Lincoln vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 50% chance of winning, Charlton a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lincoln and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Charlton?
Record (2 meetings): Lincoln 2W | Draws 0 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Lincoln and Charlton in?
Lincoln (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Charlton (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 1.05x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.93x) against Lincoln's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
50%
1.99
24%
4.09
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.75
1.10
Charlton xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
5%
20.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.10 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lincoln's recent record stands at 17W 14D 25L from 56 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 24L across 56 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Lincoln against 1.25 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 8W 8D 11L from 27 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 7W 7D 13L across 27 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lincoln are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.25 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 56 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Charlton in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 17W 14D 25L in their last 56 games (1.16 PPG), while Charlton have gone 19W 13D 24L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Charlton away?
Lincoln's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.19 PPG; Charlton away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lincoln have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lincoln
4
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 3, Charlton have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Charlton 2-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Charlton?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 56%, Charlton 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lincoln) and 48% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Lincoln have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Lincoln's games and 63% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lincoln vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lincoln's recent games and 48% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Charlton tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Charlton in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lincoln's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Lincoln and Charlton drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.65 xG and Charlton 1.10 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lincoln fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Charlton landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.05 / defence 0.97 against Charlton attack 0.93 / defence 1.18, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 50% | Draw 24% | Charlton 25%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 50%, Charlton 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charlton's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.16 PPG, Charlton 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.