Peterborough vs Burton Albion – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Peterborough 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burton Albion beat Peterborough 0-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 2.44 xG and Burton Albion 1.33 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Peterborough fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.50 / defence 1.34 against Burton Albion attack 0.90 / defence 1.22, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Peterborough 62% | Draw 19% | Burton Albion 20%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Burton Albion win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 69%, Burton Albion 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Peterborough's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Burton Albion's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights