Peterborough vs Burton Albion – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.50) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.90x) against Peterborough's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
62%
1.61
19%
5.40
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.77
1.33
Burton Albion xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.40
19%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
9%
11.51
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
2%
58.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.33 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.