Notts County vs Stevenage – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stevenage at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stevenage make the trip to Meadow Lane to face Notts County in League One, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Notts County (all games): 4W 6D 0L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Notts County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Meadow Lane, Notts County have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Notts County. A 0.50 PPG lead over Stevenage (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Notts County — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Stevenage — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 57% versus Stevenage 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 54% | Stevenage 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.12 xG and Stevenage 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 0.927 / defence 1.077 | Stevenage attack 1.069 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.398. Data: 5 Notts County games / 52 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 25% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 47%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Stevenage 2.13. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Notts County (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 70% | Stevenage 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 25% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Notts County 1.12 / Stevenage 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 0.927 / def 1.077 | Stevenage attack 1.069 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Stevenage xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Stevenage kick off?
Notts County vs Stevenage is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Meadow Lane.
Where is Notts County vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Stevenage part of?
Notts County vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 25% chance of winning, Stevenage a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Notts County and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Stevenage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Notts County and Stevenage in?
Notts County (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Stevenage (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Notts County's attack rating (0.93) and Stevenage's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (1.07x) against Notts County's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 5/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
25%
4.03
28%
3.56
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.73
1.61
Stevenage xG
4.03
25%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
5%
20.18
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Notts County and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Notts County and 1.61 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Notts County have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 27W 13D 14L record — D-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Notts County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stevenage's form line: 23W 15D 16L from 54 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Notts County against 1.56 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Notts County have posted 1.89 PPG from 27 outings (15W 6D 6L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 8W 7D 12L from 27 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Notts County are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.11 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Early Season
Stevenage
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 27W 13D 14L in their last 54 games (1.74 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 23W 15D 16L in their last 54 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Stevenage away?
Notts County's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.89 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Notts County or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Stevenage in 37%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 59%, Stevenage 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Notts County) and 44% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stevenage in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Stevenage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Notts County's games and 52% of Stevenage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Notts County vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Notts County's recent games and 44% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Stevenage tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.