Notts County vs Stevenage – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stevenage make the trip to Meadow Lane to face Notts County in League One, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Notts County (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Meadow Lane, Notts County have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Notts County against 1.50 for Stevenage. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Notts County — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Stevenage — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 53% versus Stevenage 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 50% | Stevenage 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.28 xG and Stevenage 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 0.889 / defence 0.987 | Stevenage attack 0.938 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.262. Data: 12 Notts County games / 58 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 37% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 32%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Stevenage 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Notts County as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Notts County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 60% | Stevenage 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 37% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Notts County 1.28 / Stevenage 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 0.889 / def 0.987 | Stevenage attack 0.938 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Notts County (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Stevenage xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Stevenage kick off?
Notts County vs Stevenage is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Meadow Lane.
Where is Notts County vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Stevenage part of?
Notts County vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 37% chance of winning, Stevenage a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Notts County and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Stevenage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Notts County and Stevenage in?
Notts County (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Stevenage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Notts County's attack rating (0.89) and Stevenage's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.94x) against Notts County's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 12/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
37%
2.69
31%
3.23
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.45
1.17
Stevenage xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
9%
11.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.1 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Notts County and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Notts County and 1.17 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Notts County have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 29W 13D 18L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage's form line: 25W 16D 19L from 60 games, 1.52 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Notts County against 1.52 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Notts County have posted 1.83 PPG from 30 outings (16W 7D 7L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 8W 8D 14L from 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Notts County are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.10 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 29W 13D 18L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 25W 16D 19L in their last 60 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Stevenage away?
Notts County's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.83 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Notts County or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Stevenage in 37%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 57%, Stevenage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Notts County) and 43% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stevenage in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Notts County's recent matches and 50% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Notts County's recent games and 43% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Stevenage tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.