Notts County vs Mansfield Town – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mansfield Town make the trip to Meadow Lane to face Notts County in League One, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 January 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Notts County have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Notts County at Meadow Lane this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Notts County are significantly better at Meadow Lane than their overall form suggests.
Mansfield Town's overall League One record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Mansfield Town have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Mansfield Town are 0.50 PPG clear of Notts County in recent League One fixtures (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Notts County, 2 for Mansfield Town and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with Mansfield Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 53% versus Mansfield Town 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 51% | Mansfield Town 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.31 xG and Mansfield Town 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 0.806 / defence 1.120 | Mansfield Town attack 0.843 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.302. Data: 9 Notts County games / 55 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 38% | Draw 29% | Mansfield Town 34%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Mansfield Town 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Notts County as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mansfield Town (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Notts County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 70% | Mansfield Town 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 38% | Draw 29% | Mansfield Town 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Notts County 1.31 / Mansfield Town 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 0.806 / def 1.120 | Mansfield Town attack 0.843 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Notts County (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Mansfield Town xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Notts County vs Mansfield Town is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Meadow Lane.
Where is Notts County vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Mansfield Town part of?
Notts County vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 38% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Notts County and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Mansfield Town?
Record (2 meetings): Notts County 0W | Draws 0 | Mansfield Town 2W.
What form are Notts County and Mansfield Town in?
Notts County (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Mansfield Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Notts County's attack rating (0.81) and Mansfield Town's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (0.84x) against Notts County's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 9/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
38%
2.66
29%
3.46
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.54
1.23
Mansfield Town xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Notts County and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Notts County and 1.23 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Notts County come into this having played 55 games, going 27W 12D 16L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.40 PPG from 55 outings (19W 20D 16L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Notts County against 1.40 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Notts County's home form reads 14W 6D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.15 points per game from 27 outings (7W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Notts County are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.36 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 55 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 27W 12D 16L in their last 55 games (1.69 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 19W 20D 16L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Mansfield Town away?
Notts County's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.78 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Notts County or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Notts County
0
Draws
2
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Mansfield Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Notts County have won 0, Mansfield Town have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Mansfield Town 1-0 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 56%, Mansfield Town 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Notts County) and 41% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mansfield Town in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Mansfield Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Notts County's recent matches and 52% of Mansfield Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Notts County's recent games and 41% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.