AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Stockport County (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AFC Wimbledon face Stockport County.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 28 as AFC Wimbledon welcome Stockport County to The Cherry Red Records Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, AFC Wimbledon have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Stockport County's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of AFC Wimbledon's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Stockport County have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against AFC Wimbledon's 1 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Stockport County winning.
It is worth noting that Stockport County have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Stockport County trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 42% versus Stockport County 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 49% | Stockport County 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 0.64 xG and Stockport County 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.626 / defence 0.928 | Stockport County attack 1.195 / defence 0.740. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.292. AFC Wimbledon's attack strength of 0.626 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stockport County's defence strength of 0.740 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 AFC Wimbledon games / 57 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 16% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 55%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 6.25 | Draw 3.45 | Stockport County 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 20% | Stockport County 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 16% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 37% | xG AFC Wimbledon 0.64 / Stockport County 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.626 / def 0.928 | Stockport County attack 1.195 / def 0.740 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Stockport County xG
37%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 16% chance of winning, Stockport County a 55% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County?
Record (6 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 1W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 5W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Stockport County (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AFC Wimbledon's attack rating (0.63) and Stockport County's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
16%
6.35
29%
3.48
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.9%
Away win
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.07
1.43
Stockport County xG
6.35
16%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
53%
1.90
Win to Nil
4%
26.65
29%
3.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 18.0 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.43 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 18W 11D 28L from 57 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 29W 11D 17L across 57 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AFC Wimbledon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 10W 6D 12L from 28 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stockport County's away record stands at 12W 7D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.61 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 57 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 18W 11D 28L in their last 57 games (1.14 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 29W 11D 17L in their last 57 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.29 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.54 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Stockport County in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Stockport County have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Mar 2026, when Stockport County won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
5
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, Stockport County have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 36%, Stockport County 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (AFC Wimbledon) and 54% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Stockport County in 32%; AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 50% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 54% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.