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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Northampton cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stevenage.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Northampton beat Stevenage 3-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.16 xG and Stevenage 1.01 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Northampton beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.82 / defence 1.07 against Stevenage attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 75/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Northampton 39% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 32%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 46%, Stevenage 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Northampton's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Stevenage's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Northampton 1.09 PPG, Stevenage 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights