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Dominant Northampton run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Shrewsbury.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Northampton beat Shrewsbury 4-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.04 xG and Shrewsbury 1.08 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Northampton beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.69 / defence 1.15 against Shrewsbury attack 0.82 / defence 1.19, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Northampton 34% | Draw 31% | Shrewsbury 36%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Northampton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 48%, Shrewsbury 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Northampton's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Northampton 1.20 PPG, Shrewsbury 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights