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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Northampton and Peterborough share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 35, as Northampton and Peterborough drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.13 xG and Peterborough 1.30 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.78 / defence 1.13 against Peterborough attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Northampton 32% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 41%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 46%, Peterborough 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Northampton's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Peterborough's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Northampton 1.06 PPG, Peterborough 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights