Northampton vs Peterborough – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Northampton edge out Peterborough 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Northampton beat Peterborough 2-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.47 xG and Peterborough 1.19 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.87 / defence 0.97 against Peterborough attack 1.11 / defence 1.28, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Northampton 44% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 31%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 50%, Peterborough 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Northampton's trading profile (64 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Peterborough's trading profile (64 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Northampton 1.22 PPG, Peterborough 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights