Northampton vs Peterborough – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Northampton's attack rating (0.87) and Peterborough's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.88
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.65
1.19
Peterborough xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
7%
14.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Northampton and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Northampton and 1.19 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.