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Poisson model rates Bolton at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bolton vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Bolton host Bradford at Toughsheet Community Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League One games this season, Bolton have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bolton's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Toughsheet Community Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Bradford — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bradford away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bolton at 2.00 PPG versus Bradford's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Trading Patterns

Bolton in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Bradford in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 57% versus Bradford 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 54% | Bradford 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.89 xG and Bradford 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.347 / defence 0.795 | Bradford attack 1.084 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.037. Bolton carry an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bolton's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Bolton games / 15 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bolton 61% | Draw 22% | Bradford 17%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Bradford 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Bolton (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bolton as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bolton 50% | Bradford 90% BTTS from recent games.

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