Bolton 0-0 Bradford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bolton at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bolton vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bolton host Bradford at Toughsheet Community Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Bolton have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bolton's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Toughsheet Community Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bradford — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bolton at 2.00 PPG versus Bradford's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Bolton in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Bradford in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 57% versus Bradford 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 54% | Bradford 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.89 xG and Bradford 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.347 / defence 0.795 | Bradford attack 1.084 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.037. Bolton carry an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bolton's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Bolton games / 15 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 61% | Draw 22% | Bradford 17%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Bradford 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Bolton (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bolton as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bolton 50% | Bradford 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Bradford | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 61% | Draw 22% | Bradford 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG Bolton 1.89 / Bradford 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.347 / def 0.795 | Bradford attack 1.084 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Bolton (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Bradford xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Bradford kick off?
Bolton vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Bradford?
Bolton 0 - 0 Bradford.
Where is Bolton vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Bradford part of?
Bolton vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 61% chance of winning, Bradford a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bolton and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Bradford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bolton and Bradford in?
Bolton (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Bradford (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bolton's attack rating (1.35) and Bradford's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Bolton's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
61%
1.65
22%
4.55
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Bolton xG
Total xG
2.78
0.89
Bradford xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
3%
38.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Bolton and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Bolton and 0.89 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Bradford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bolton come into this having played 61 games, going 27W 13D 21L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Bolton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.72 PPG from 61 outings (29W 18D 14L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bolton on 1.54 PPG, Bradford on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bolton's home form reads 17W 5D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 1.10 points per game from 30 outings (7W 12D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bolton are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.44 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 61 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Bradford in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 27W 13D 21L in their last 61 games (1.54 PPG), while Bradford have gone 29W 18D 14L in their last 61 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Bradford away?
Bolton's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 1.87 PPG; Bradford away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Bolton or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Bradford in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bolton go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Bolton's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bolton
2
Draws
0
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Bradford?
From 4 meetings on record, Bolton have won 2, Bradford have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Bradford 0-1 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Bradford?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 57%, Bradford 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Bolton) and 47% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Bradford in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Bradford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Bolton's games and 63% of Bradford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bolton vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Bolton's recent games and 47% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bolton and Bradford tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bradford in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bolton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Bolton and Bradford drew 0-0 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.89 xG and Bradford 0.89 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bolton fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Bradford landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.35 / defence 0.80 against Bradford attack 1.08 / defence 1.05, drawn from 61/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 61% | Draw 22% | Bradford 17%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 54%, Bradford 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bradford's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bolton 1.54 PPG, Bradford 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.