Northampton 2-1 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Northampton face Cambridge United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cambridge United travel to Sixfields Stadium to take on Northampton in League One (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Northampton have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Northampton at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cambridge United stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Northampton 1.00 PPG, Cambridge United 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Northampton in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 52% versus Cambridge United 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 45% | Cambridge United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.52 xG and Cambridge United 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.989 / defence 1.099 | Cambridge United attack 0.642 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.127. Cambridge United's attack rating of 0.642 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Northampton's last 16 games and Cambridge United's last 63.
Result probabilities: Northampton 54% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 20%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 1.84 | Draw 3.85 | Cambridge United 5.09. Northampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Northampton as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Northampton 60% (last 10 home games) | Cambridge United 30% (last 10 away games).
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, matchday 19 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 54% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Northampton 1.52 / Cambridge United 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.989 / def 1.099 | Cambridge United attack 0.642 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Northampton (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Cambridge United xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Northampton vs Cambridge United FAQs
What time does Northampton vs Cambridge United kick off?
Northampton vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Cambridge United?
Northampton 2 - 1 Cambridge United.
Where is Northampton vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Cambridge United part of?
Northampton vs Cambridge United is a League One fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 54% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Northampton and Cambridge United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Northampton vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Northampton's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Cambridge United's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Northampton's last 16 games and Cambridge United's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.85
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.31
0.80
Cambridge United xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
4%
23.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 11.9 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Northampton vs Cambridge United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Northampton and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Northampton and 0.80 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Northampton have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 28W 16D 18L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Cambridge United's form line: 17W 12D 33L from 62 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Northampton are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cambridge United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Northampton have posted 1.71 PPG from their last 31 home games (15W 8D 8L).
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 5W 5D 21L from their last 31 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Northampton are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.85 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
Northampton (Home) vs Cambridge United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Northampton
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Northampton vs Cambridge United Form FAQs
What form are Northampton and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 28W 16D 18L in their last 62 games (1.61 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 17W 12D 33L in their last 62 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Cambridge United away?
Northampton's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.71 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Northampton or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Northampton's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Northampton
3
Draws
0
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Northampton vs Cambridge United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Cambridge United?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Northampton have won 1, Cambridge United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Cambridge United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2025: Cambridge United 1-1 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Cambridge United?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 55%, Cambridge United 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Northampton) and 45% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cambridge United in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Northampton vs Cambridge United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Northampton and Cambridge United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Northampton's recent matches and 42% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Northampton and Cambridge United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Northampton's recent games and 45% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Cambridge United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Northampton's recent matches and 68% of Cambridge United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Northampton edge out Cambridge United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Cambridge United 2-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.52 xG and Cambridge United 0.80 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.99 / defence 1.10 against Cambridge United attack 0.64 / defence 1.14, drawn from 16/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 54% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 20%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 45%, Cambridge United 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambridge United's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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