Leyton Orient 1-1 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Leyton Orient face Wigan.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Brisbane Road plays host to Leyton Orient versus Wigan in League One (matchday 19). Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Leyton Orient's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Leyton Orient at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wigan (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Wigan have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Leyton Orient, 1.30 for Wigan — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Leyton Orient half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Wigan half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leyton Orient 36% versus Wigan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Leyton Orient 32% | Wigan 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leyton Orient 1.15 xG and Wigan 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leyton Orient attack 0.777 / defence 1.306 | Wigan attack 1.001 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.127. Leyton Orient's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Leyton Orient's defence rating of 1.306 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wigan's projected output up. Data: built from Leyton Orient's last 17 games and Wigan's last 17.
Result probabilities: Leyton Orient 30% | Draw 26% | Wigan 45%. Fair-value odds: Leyton Orient 3.37 | Draw 3.87 | Wigan 2.25. Wigan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wigan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Leyton Orient 30% (last 10 home games) | Wigan 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leyton Orient vs Wigan | Competition: League One, matchday 19 | Venue: Brisbane Road • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leyton Orient 30% | Draw 26% | Wigan 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Leyton Orient 1.15 / Wigan 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Leyton Orient attack 0.777 / def 1.306 | Wigan attack 1.001 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Wigan (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Leyton Orient xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Wigan xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Leyton Orient vs Wigan FAQs
What time does Leyton Orient vs Wigan kick off?
Leyton Orient vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Brisbane Road.
What was the final score in Leyton Orient vs Wigan?
Leyton Orient 1 - 1 Wigan.
Where is Leyton Orient vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Brisbane Road.
What competition is Leyton Orient vs Wigan part of?
Leyton Orient vs Wigan is a League One fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Leyton Orient vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Leyton Orient a 30% chance of winning, Wigan a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leyton Orient vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Leyton Orient and Wigan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Leyton Orient vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Leyton Orient's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Wigan's attack (1.00x) against Leyton Orient's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from Leyton Orient's last 17 games and Wigan's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
30%
3.37
26%
3.87
45%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Leyton Orient xG
Total xG
2.63
1.47
Wigan xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.25
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
7%
14.72
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Leyton Orient vs Wigan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Leyton Orient vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Leyton Orient and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Leyton Orient and 1.47 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Leyton Orient vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Leyton Orient's recent record stands at 31W 18D 14L from 63 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Wigan, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 28L across 63 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Leyton Orient by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wigan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Leyton Orient have managed 18W 7D 6L from their last 31 home games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wigan's away record stands at 8W 9D 14L across their last 31 away games, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leyton Orient come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leyton Orient are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.02 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Leyton Orient have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leyton Orient
Blended
Wigan
Blended
Leyton Orient (Home) vs Wigan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Leyton Orient
Blended
Wigan
Blended
❓ Leyton Orient vs Wigan Form FAQs
What form are Leyton Orient and Wigan in coming into this match?
Leyton Orient have gone 31W 18D 14L in their last 63 games (1.76 PPG), while Wigan have gone 18W 17D 28L in their last 63 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leyton Orient at home or Wigan away?
Leyton Orient's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leyton Orient at home: 1.97 PPG; Wigan away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Leyton Orient or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leyton Orient have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Wigan in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leyton Orient have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wigan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Leyton Orient
3
Draws
1
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Leyton Orient vs Wigan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Wigan?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Leyton Orient have won 3, Wigan have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Leyton Orient and Wigan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Wigan 0-2 Leyton Orient.
Who has won more matches between Leyton Orient and Wigan?
Leyton Orient have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Leyton Orient see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leyton Orient 29%, Wigan 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Leyton Orient) and 45% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Leyton Orient keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leyton Orient home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Leyton Orient vs Wigan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Leyton Orient and Wigan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Leyton Orient's recent matches and 61% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Leyton Orient and Wigan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Leyton Orient's recent games and 45% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leyton Orient and Wigan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Leyton Orient's recent matches and 81% of Wigan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Leyton Orient and Wigan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Brisbane Road, Regular Season - 19, as Leyton Orient and Wigan drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 1.15 xG and Wigan 1.47 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 0.78 / defence 1.31 against Wigan attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 30% | Draw 26% | Wigan 45%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 32%, Wigan 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leyton Orient's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Wigan's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Leyton Orient arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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