🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Burton Albion cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Northampton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burton Albion beat Northampton 0-2 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.26 xG and Burton Albion 1.07 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Northampton fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Burton Albion outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.79 / defence 1.08 against Burton Albion attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Northampton 41% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 31%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 45%, Burton Albion 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Northampton's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Burton Albion's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Northampton 1.05 PPG, Burton Albion 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights