Northampton 0-2 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Northampton face Burton Albion.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Northampton welcome Burton Albion to Sixfields Stadium in League One (matchday 37). Kick-off is Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Northampton stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Northampton's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Burton Albion have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Burton Albion's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Northampton 0.60 PPG, Burton Albion 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Northampton's games and 60% of Burton Albion's (from Northampton's last 10 home games and Burton Albion's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Northampton have won 3, Burton Albion 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2025, ended Northampton 1–5 Burton Albion — a Burton Albion win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Northampton trading profile (last 82 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Burton Albion trading profile (last 82 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 49% versus Burton Albion 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 45% | Burton Albion 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.26 xG and Burton Albion 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.790 / defence 1.081 | Burton Albion attack 0.852 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.164. Northampton's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.26. Data: built from Northampton's last 82 games and Burton Albion's last 82.
Result probabilities: Northampton 41% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 31%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.46 | Draw 3.58 | Burton Albion 3.19. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Northampton are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Northampton 70% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, matchday 37 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 41% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Northampton 1.26 / Burton Albion 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.790 / def 1.081 | Burton Albion attack 0.852 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Northampton (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Burton Albion xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Northampton vs Burton Albion FAQs
What time does Northampton vs Burton Albion kick off?
Northampton vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Northampton 0 - 2 Burton Albion.
Where is Northampton vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Burton Albion part of?
Northampton vs Burton Albion is a League One fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 41% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Northampton and Burton Albion will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Northampton vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Northampton's attack rating (0.79) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Northampton's last 82 games and Burton Albion's last 82 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.58
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.33
1.07
Burton Albion xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
9%
11.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Northampton vs Burton Albion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Northampton and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Northampton and 1.07 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Northampton come into this having played 82 games, going 21W 23D 38L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.06 PPG from 82 outings (21W 24D 37L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.05 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Northampton's home form reads 13W 11D 17L across their last 41 home games, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.95 points per game from their last 41 away games (8W 15D 18L).
Goals in Recent Form
Northampton are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.07 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 82 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
Northampton (Home) vs Burton Albion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Northampton
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Northampton vs Burton Albion Form FAQs
What form are Northampton and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 21W 23D 38L in their last 82 games (1.05 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 21W 24D 37L in their last 82 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Burton Albion away?
Northampton's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.22 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Burton Albion have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Dec 2025, when Burton Albion won Burton Albion 5-1 Northampton.
Northampton's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Northampton vs Burton Albion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Burton Albion?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Northampton have won 3, Burton Albion have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Northampton and Burton Albion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Northampton 0-2 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Burton Albion?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 49%, Burton Albion 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Northampton) and 49% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Northampton have failed to score in 39% of games; Burton Albion in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Northampton vs Burton Albion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Northampton and Burton Albion matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Northampton's recent matches and 51% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Northampton and Burton Albion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Northampton's recent games and 49% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Burton Albion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Northampton's recent matches and 61% of Burton Albion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Northampton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Northampton 0-2 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.26 xG and Burton Albion 1.07 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Northampton fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Burton Albion outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.79 / defence 1.08 against Burton Albion attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 41% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 31%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 45%, Burton Albion 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burton Albion's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.05 PPG, Burton Albion 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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