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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Northampton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bolton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Northampton beat Bolton 2-0 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.07 xG and Bolton 0.78 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Northampton beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.79 / defence 0.80 against Bolton attack 0.91 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Northampton 42% | Draw 32% | Bolton 26%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 43%, Bolton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Northampton's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Bolton's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Northampton 1.13 PPG, Bolton 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights