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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Northampton cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AFC Wimbledon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Northampton beat AFC Wimbledon 3-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.56 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.16 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Northampton beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.87 / defence 1.05 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.99 / defence 1.40, drawn from 65/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Northampton 47% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 28%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 45%, AFC Wimbledon 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Northampton's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AFC Wimbledon arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Northampton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights