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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Peterborough defy the odds to beat Mansfield Town 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough beat Mansfield Town 1-2 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.30 xG and Peterborough 0.99 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Peterborough outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 0.95 / defence 0.83 against Peterborough attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 74/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 44% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 28%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 57%, Peterborough 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mansfield Town's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Peterborough's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.26 PPG, Peterborough 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights