Mansfield Town 0-2 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mansfield Town at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mansfield Town vs Notts County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Notts County make the trip to Field Mill to face Mansfield Town in League One, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mansfield Town's overall League One record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mansfield Town have posted 5W 5D 0L at Field Mill — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Mansfield Town are significantly better at Field Mill than their overall form suggests.
Notts County (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Notts County's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Mansfield Town. A 0.50 PPG lead over Notts County (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mansfield Town lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Mansfield Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mansfield Town — key trading statistics (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Notts County — key trading statistics (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 56% versus Notts County 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 51% | Notts County 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.68 xG and Notts County 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.106 / defence 0.897 | Notts County attack 0.702 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.262. Data: 57 Mansfield Town games / 11 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 57% | Draw 26% | Notts County 16%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Notts County 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Mansfield Town (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mansfield Town at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Mansfield Town 80% | Notts County 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Notts County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Field Mill • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 57% | Draw 26% | Notts County 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Mansfield Town 1.68 / Notts County 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.106 / def 0.897 | Notts County attack 0.702 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Notts County xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Notts County kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Notts County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Field Mill.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Notts County?
Mansfield Town 0 - 2 Notts County.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Field Mill.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Notts County part of?
Mansfield Town vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 57% chance of winning, Notts County a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mansfield Town and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Notts County?
Record (2 meetings): Mansfield Town 2W | Draws 0 | Notts County 0W.
What form are Mansfield Town and Notts County in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Notts County (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mansfield Town's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Notts County's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Notts County's attack (0.70x) against Mansfield Town's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 57/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
57%
1.74
26%
3.82
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.47
0.80
Notts County xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
3%
32.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.2 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 0.80 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Notts County?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Mansfield Town have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 21W 20D 16L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Notts County's form line: 28W 13D 16L from 57 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Mansfield Town against 1.70 for Notts County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mansfield Town have posted 1.70 PPG from 27 outings (12W 10D 5L).
On the road, Notts County have gone 12W 6D 9L from 27 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.51 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 57 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Blended
Notts County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Notts County in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 21W 20D 16L in their last 57 games (1.46 PPG), while Notts County have gone 28W 13D 16L in their last 57 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Notts County away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.70 PPG; Notts County away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Notts County in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won 1-4 on 14 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Notts County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Mansfield Town
0
Draws
1
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Notts County?
From 3 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 2, Notts County have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Mansfield Town 0-2 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Notts County?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 59%, Notts County 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Mansfield Town) and 44% (Notts County).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Notts County in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Notts County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 48% of Notts County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mansfield Town vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 44% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Notts County tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Notts County in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Notts County cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mansfield Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Mansfield Town 0-2 at Field Mill, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.68 xG and Notts County 0.80 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mansfield Town fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Notts County outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.11 / defence 0.90 against Notts County attack 0.70 / defence 1.08, drawn from 57/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 57% | Draw 26% | Notts County 16%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Notts County win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 51%, Notts County 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Notts County's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.46 PPG, Notts County 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.