Mansfield Town 3-3 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 39%, yet in-form Mansfield Town provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burton Albion make the trip to One Call Stadium to face Mansfield Town in League One, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Mansfield Town (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Mansfield Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at One Call Stadium, Mansfield Town have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Burton Albion have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burton Albion's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Mansfield Town's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Burton Albion's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Burton Albion in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Burton Albion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 66% versus Burton Albion 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 55% | Burton Albion 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.17 xG and Burton Albion 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 0.870 / defence 1.150 | Burton Albion attack 0.922 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.207. Data: 1 Mansfield Town games / 47 Burton Albion games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 34% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 39%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Burton Albion 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burton Albion are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mansfield Town (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Mansfield Town 80% | Burton Albion 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 34% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Mansfield Town 1.17 / Burton Albion 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 0.870 / def 1.150 | Burton Albion attack 0.922 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Burton Albion xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Mansfield Town 3 - 3 Burton Albion.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion part of?
Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 34% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mansfield Town and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Burton Albion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mansfield Town and Burton Albion in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mansfield Town's attack at 0.87x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.92x) against Mansfield Town's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
The sample (1/47 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
34%
2.97
27%
3.66
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.45
1.28
Burton Albion xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 1.28 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Mansfield Town have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 25W 14D 8L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mansfield Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burton Albion's form line: 12W 10D 25L from 47 games, 0.98 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Mansfield Town are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mansfield Town have posted 2.00 PPG from 23 outings (13W 7D 3L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 5W 6D 12L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.87 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Early Season
Burton Albion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 25W 14D 8L in their last 47 games (1.89 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 12W 10D 25L in their last 47 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Burton Albion away?
Mansfield Town's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 2.00 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mansfield Town
3
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Burton Albion?
From 4 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 0, Burton Albion have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Mansfield Town 0-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Burton Albion?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 56%, Burton Albion 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Mansfield Town) and 48% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Burton Albion in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 44% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 48% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mansfield Town and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town and Burton Albion finished level at 3-3 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.17 xG and Burton Albion 1.28 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Mansfield Town beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burton Albion outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Burton Albion attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 1/47 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 34% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 39%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 55%, Burton Albion 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.