Cambridge United 0-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambridge United at 46%, yet in-form Crawley Town provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cambridge United vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cledara Abbey Stadium plays host to Cambridge United versus Crawley Town in League One, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 17 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cambridge United's overall League One record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cambridge United have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambridge United's home record at Cledara Abbey Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crawley Town have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crawley Town's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in League One this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Crawley Town arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cambridge United have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Crawley Town in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Cambridge United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 36% versus Crawley Town 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 38% | Crawley Town 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.39 xG and Crawley Town 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.932 / defence 0.960 | Crawley Town attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.207. Data: 47 Cambridge United games / 1 Crawley Town games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 46% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 27%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Crawley Town 3.70. Cambridge United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambridge United at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Crawley Town (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambridge United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cambridge United 60% | Crawley Town 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Crawley Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Cledara Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 46% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Cambridge United 1.39 / Crawley Town 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 0.932 / def 0.960 | Crawley Town attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Crawley Town xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Crawley Town kick off?
Cambridge United vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Crawley Town?
Cambridge United 0 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Cambridge United vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Crawley Town part of?
Cambridge United vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 46% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cambridge United and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Crawley Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cambridge United and Crawley Town in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cambridge United's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.85x) against Cambridge United's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
The sample (47/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.68
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.37
0.98
Crawley Town xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
7%
14.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Cambridge United and 0.98 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cambridge United come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 12D 23L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Cambridge United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.60 PPG from 47 outings (23W 6D 18L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Crawley Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cambridge United's home form reads 8W 7D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 1.57 points per game from 23 outings (11W 3D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Cambridge United are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.72 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 47 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Early Season
Crawley Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 12W 12D 23L in their last 47 games (1.02 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 23W 6D 18L in their last 47 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Crawley Town away?
Crawley Town's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.35 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambridge United go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambridge United won 0-3 on 10 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambridge United have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Cambridge United
0
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 3, Crawley Town have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Crawley Town 0-3 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Cambridge United and Crawley Town?
Cambridge United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambridge United see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 44%, Crawley Town 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Cambridge United) and 61% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Cambridge United have failed to score in 35% of games; Crawley Town in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 56% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambridge United vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Cambridge United's recent games and 61% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Cambridge United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Cambridge United 0-1 at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.39 xG and Crawley Town 0.98 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cambridge United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Crawley Town attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 46% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 27%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 38%, Crawley Town 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crawley Town's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Crawley Town arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.