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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lincoln cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stockport County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lincoln beat Stockport County 3-1 at LNER stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 2.00 xG and Stockport County 0.81 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lincoln beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.43 / defence 0.79 against Stockport County attack 0.88 / defence 0.99, drawn from 82/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lincoln 65% | Draw 21% | Stockport County 14%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 48%, Stockport County 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lincoln's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Stockport County's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.68 PPG, Stockport County 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights