🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Lincoln and Shrewsbury share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 42, as Lincoln and Shrewsbury drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.74 xG and Shrewsbury 0.74 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.12 / defence 0.81 against Shrewsbury attack 0.80 / defence 1.22, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lincoln 61% | Draw 23% | Shrewsbury 15%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 42%, Shrewsbury 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lincoln's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lincoln arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights